Nashville: 2,700 NEW Jobs Created?

Nashville may see 2,700 new jobs and see Market Center Management Company update one of our most visible downtown intersections - at Commerce and Broadway - with the Nashville Medical Trade Center. There are still two huge contingencies 1) pre-lease the space and 2) Metro Council approving $585 million Downtown Convention Center project… but Nashville and the Ryman Auditorium are ready for the new neighbors – and like anyone right now; we want the influx of new jobs.

Rendings of the exterior of the proposed Nashville Medical Trade Center. Market Center Management Company announced today the location for its $250 million Nashville Medical Trade Center project: the site of the current Nashville Convention Center at 601 Commerce Street in downtown Nashville. The medical center will feature permanent manufacturer showrooms, temporary exhibition space, and conference facilities within a 2 million square foot complex. (Courtesy Market Center Management Company)

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Kevin Pellatiro
Hoping to help you take advantage of the market – when you are ready.
(615) 714-7918 kpellatiro@realtracs.com

Numbers Recovering :-)

Below is today’s look at our national real estate market from Calculated Risk. Keep an eye on his “Distressing Gap” …the difference between how many resale homes are sold, and how many new homes are sold. The national market can’t tell yet -because there are more foreclosures coming to test it - but we appear to be in actual, living recovery. Really.

Not yet above the waterline, but actually moving on the right direct; the proverbial bottom. See the direction of the graphs in the article below. The numbers for 2009 actually show this year is about normal for existing home turnover, but that inventory is still too high nationwide – with more shadow inventory to come.

The real question that the data can't predict:
Do you feel that values will hold in your new neighborhood?

Would you like to run the specific numbers together and find out what the numbers show?











http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2009/09/existing-home-turnover-ratio-and.html

Wait a minute: A comment on House Prices

Below is a re-post I thought we may need to keep in mind as we see housing numbers climb for sunshine during these glorious summer months. Nashville and our surrounding markets, as a whole, are doing fairly well - very well in some cases - but we are better than most in 2009 (nationally). As you and those you know plan how to take advantage of this market, remember to gather as much information as possible. Then use it... article below from Bill McBride, Calculated Risk (Hat tip: "A comment on House Prices" by CalculatedRisk on 8/25/2009 09:39:00 PM)

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I've seen story after story today suggesting the bottom is in for house prices.

This isn't like 2005 when it was almost certain that prices would fall, and fall sharply. Now we are much closer to the bottom than to the top in prices (for some metrics, see House Prices: Real Prices, Price-to-Rent, and Price-to-Income)

In some areas prices have probably already hit bottom - like some non-bubble areas, and some bubble areas with significant foreclosure activity.

But I think many areas, especially the mid-to-high priced bubble areas, there will be further price declines. I'm not as certain as I was in 2005, but I think these price declines will drag down the Case-Shiller indexes - and I don't think the price bottom is in.

I do not have a crystal ball, but

...It seems there are many more foreclosures coming. Some of this depends on the success of the modification programs, but the Q2 MBA delinquency report shows a growing number of homeowners in the problem pipeline.

And the Fitch report yesterday suggests few of these delinquent homeowners will cure.That seems to mean rising foreclosures, and more distressed inventory. The MBA Chief Economist Jay Brinkmann thinks foreclosures will peak at the end of 2010.

Historically prices bottom about the same time as foreclosure activity peaks. Maybe it will be different this time - maybe the modification programs will significantly reduce foreclosures - maybe prices will bottom before foreclosures peak ... but I'll go with the normal pattern.

And on the demand side, there has been a surge in first-time homebuyer activity. There was significant pent up demand from potential first-time buyers who were priced out of the market in 2004-2006, and then were afraid to buy as prices fell. But demand from these buyers will probably wane later this year, even if another tax credit is enacted.

Just like the "cash-for-clunkers" demand declined after the initial burst.

For mid-to-high priced homes, there are few move-up buyers (or so it would seem since so many low end homes were distress sales). Right now the months-of-supply in many of these areas is well into double figures, suggesting further price declines.

And on unemployment: most forecasts are for unemployment to rise into next year some time. Historically house prices do not bottom until after unemployment peaks. That seems especially likely now since so many homeowners are underwater. Once again I'll go with the normal pattern.

Also looking back at previous housing busts (like I did earlier today looking at the early '90s) there are usually some months during the bust with increasing prices. So no one should expect every month to be negative during the bust ... especially are prices get closer to the bottom.

I could be wrong - this isn't as certain as in 2005 - but I don't think house prices have bottomed. If I'm proven wrong, I'll be the first to admit it.

Best to all.

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Are we getting there? The Economic Upside of 2009

We could be in market recovery.

Doug Short - of dshort.com, Motley Fool contributor - and Steve Cassaday - President and CEO of Cassaday & Company - have chosen to share an interesting conversation with the rest of us… They are not doing so as someone trying to sell us, and so saying good things (it a great time to buy, sign here), but by established market trends and experience (see these figures, the sun will come out tomorrow).

And when these two talk, it might be a good idea for us to listen. Doug Short has been charting financial data for over 25 years. He tried convincing us to ‘store up’ for this mess back in 2007. Steve Cassaday is one of the best Financial Advisors in the country – not back when, but right now.

These guys talking RECOVERY is something to hope for heading into winter. Honest considerations that our markets are showings real signs of life, of resilience. Could we look back on these times as the initial growth period?

For the record, previous upswings far outpace the downturns.

In their example for our consideration, the four worst market drops in history are lined up at their deepest, darkest lows (current S&P low of March 9th 2009 used):

Here's to a better tomorrow, today.

What's your headline for this one...

A Rolls Royce Phantom (2008 model MSRP = $340,000) in the parking lot of the Newport, RI Wal-Mart (captured by John Rowles, Mainrhode.com, on his phone Saturday).

Best headline for this photo we’ve heard so far?

“I hate my new job.”

((for fun: the old Grey Poupon commercial))

128 days left. 18 weeks.

Typically, you want to allow 60 days to find the right home -- 30 to 45 more days to go through the inspection and loan process. Roughly, only 38 days remaining before a 90 day process might put the $8,000.00 stimulus check (set to expire November 30th) at risk for you first time home buyers.

Its going to be a log jam at the end of November. Builders, lenders, and title companies are going to be bursting at the seams to meet the deadline. Avoid the strain and stress of standing in that line -- start looking online and getting inside your favorite properties sooner rather than later.
Here is a convenient search site to save your top ten list. Drive by those favorites today, and start narrowing in on your preferred neighborhoods. Do you need help discovering which areas might be best for you? Send an e-mail with your questions, start asking your friends about their commutes to work/play, and get in your car (grin)! Driving to the houses you like online can really show you the difference between which neighborhoods you like, and which you can strike from your list right away.

Most importantly, try and write down the answer to your crucial search question: What am I looking for in my next home?

1.

2.

3.

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Nashville: Most affordable and stable market in the country?

From Thomas Wood, business writer at Nashville Post: Among large metro areas, Nashville has one of the most stable housing markets in the country. That’s the word from PMI Mortgage Insurance Co., which has just put out its latest quarterly Economic and Real Estate Trends Report.

The report goes on to explain national woes "Florida, California, Nevada and Arizona continue to have the highest risk scores - 36 of the most risky MSAs are located in these four states - but an increased risk of lower future prices is now spreading across all regions of the nation, due to the significant increases in unemployment and foreclosure rates."

Report available here.

Murfreesboro continues growth: 'Boro ranks 12th in U.S.

Its not all good news in these challenging times, or in this story, but the ‘Boro continues to attract:

"Murfreesboro is centrally located in Tennessee, adjacent to Nashville and along I-24," vice president of economic development with the Rutherford County Chamber of Commerce Weber said. "This central location makes the community easily accessible to newcomers." She noted that "the Middle Tennessee economy has not experienced the significant losses other areas in the U.S. are experiencing. As a result, some people may be relocating here looking for opportunity."

Murfreesboro Mayor Tommy Bragg said he thinks attractive opportunities for employment as well as educational, religious and recreational pursuits continue to draw people here. "I continue to think that our growth will be sustained over the coming years because of low tax rates, educational opportunities, a stable government, and it's a great place to live and work"

Another affordable neighborhood selling well?

'Move up buyers' is a term that real estate markets treasure. One first time homebuyer’s purchase domino’s all the way up to the sale of that 'house on the hill.' In the case of our national real estate market, this endangered species is feared to be dead or dieing due to all of the foreclosure, short-sale and REO sales. Essentially, after the bank sells you a home, they are not going out and buying another - so the ‘circle of life’ housing market stalls. perhaps cancelling what would have been five to six more home sales. Stifling demand, crushing values.

Enter our earlier post about the Blackman area of Murfreesboro (thirty minutes southeast of Nashville, Tennessee). Under five months of inventory. Stabilizing. Selling.

Anomaly? Nope.

Hendersonville’s own Walton Ferry Elementary is showing more than just ‘signs of life’ - its selling too. Pretty well in fact. About 35 houses are available in this lake community near Sander's Ferry, but 31 have already sold in 2009, with eight more under contract or pending sale. Again, we see a desirable community performing well in the midst of a tough market.
Dozens of families were able to move up to the houses they wanted, and many were able to do so quickly in this north of Nashville gem.

Will the results of this activity find its way into the rest of the market? What does it look like for all of Nashville?

Economic Perspective and the Four Bad Bears

The S&P 500 is 40% below the October 2007 high but 38.8% above the March 9th low. Are we in a new bull market, or is this a bear market rally?

Take a look at Doug Short’s fascinating take on what history might tell us about the current state of affairs.